Monday, 15 July 2013

Conservatives Equal with Labour?

Everyone's talking about the ICM poll for the Gaurdian which puts the Tories on joint 36 with Labour and UKIP down to 7% (that's only 1% more than 2010). I'd be very wary of this result because it does look a bit out ICM generally shows low UKIP results and low Lab leads. But there is clearly something important in this.

ICM Poll has equal poll results for Labour and Conservatives first time in over a year.

The Conservatives are on the up. The economy is now starting to tip the right way, almost everyone can feel it now. Ernest and Young have come out today and said we will grow this year and the next and cut the deficit more than expected, which is good news. After a good budget, a spending review which has set the tone for the 2015 election and a Referendum Bill introduced there are many reasons for a lower Labour lead of late. Indeed the Conservatives are more united and happy about what is going on because everybody is content.

Dave is very happy with what is going on in the Conservative Party at the moment.

Contrast this to the Labour party who are all over themselves with spending, welfare and union membership. Ed Miliband has been shown to be 'weak, weak, weak' to coin a phrase. But to put the cherry on the rotten cake for Labour they are having policy problems, see image below.

I'd blame Nick too, especially if you want a coalition with him.

But what has happened to UKIP? The results for them are down. ICM had them at 22% in April, 18% in May and now 7% in June. Well for starters nobody is paying any attention to them because the national media isn't talking about them constantly. The EU referendum has also slightly helped because the Conservatives are now the only political party where you are guaranteed on getting a say if elected in 2015. This is of course linked to immigration as well because if there is vote out or a good amount of repatriation of powers we will have control of our borders.

Nigel has faced quite a slump, but what will the future hold?

But don't start to think of cheering. Summer always known as silly season in politics and odd things can happen. Ed Miliband has time to reflect on this last part of the year and could pull a shrewd move on the EU or big policy announcements that could increase the Labour lead. He actually needs to do this otherwise Labour will look so stranded that there will not be enough to win a majority in 2015. UKIP too will come back up. When we have to open our borders to Romania and Bulgaria there will be a surge in their popular support. The same will happen at the EU elections in 2014, I think they may even win that.

Don't start celebrating till the Conservatives are leading in the polls Summer next year and don't get the party started till May 2015.

What will the political future hold.

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