Thoughts On Juncker

The whole Juncker saga over the last week or so has really made an impact on our future in the EU, and its not wholly because arch-federalist Jean Claude Juncker is the new President. Not only has Andre Walker got a new person to ask the British public "do you know who this man is", but we know that not much can change in the EU because of the leaders of Europe.

Only two countries out of twenty eight in the EU voted against Jean Claude Juncker being appointed as EU President. This shows that either the vast majority of European leaders are committed to greater political integration to form a federal Europe or that many of the leaders of 'Eurosceptic countries' are too cowardly to try stop the EU. Personally, I think it is a bit of both. Even if the Swedes, Germans and Dutch did vote against Juncker the majority of EU countries still back greater powers going to the EU.

Who wears the trousers in Europe now?

Of course the Germans may have been able to make a difference in selecting a different President but they weren't going to even though it is believed Angela Merkel actually didn't want Jean Claude Juncker. I agree, for once, with Jermey Hunt. European leaders were 'cowardly'. How can we hope to get any substantial change in Europe with these weak leaders? There is no support to change from the path of moving as quickly as possible to the ultimate goal of the Treaty of Rome of political integration.

No one except David Cameron will stand up to 'ever closer union' in Europe.

No one in the EU with any major power apart from the United Kingdom wants to make changes to Europe from fear of the geriatric Brussels bureaucracy or a real desire to bring about much closer integration. Angela Merkel said after the Juncker vote that "There can be different speeds for member countries to adopt come to ever closer union ... It was made clear, yet again, that the idea of an ever closer union as it is stated in the treaties does not mean that there is equal speed among member countries." But people of the UK do not want a slower descent into the pit of political union, we want a reversal and for it to stay like that.

I admire David Cameron in standing up what was right here. Juncker will only make the effect of the EU on Britain much worse and it was thus right for the PM to do all he could to stop him. Dave knew that he was unlikely to win but he did what was right for the nation. But if anything this shows that you cannot beat Brussels at their own game. We're not going to get anything that we want from negotiation with Brussels and thus we should leave the EU. Dave will try to renegotiate and a large proportion of people still want him to have the chance to do so. But all it can is prove for once and for all we're better off out. Thank god the Conservatives will allow us to do that with a referendum and hopefully the Prime Minister will ask the country to back an EU withdrawal.

Over The Pond

Today the growth figures for Europe came out. What a mess, is the best description of what is going on.

The best news is that Germany received 0.1% growth in the last quarter, although they probably lost 0.2% from serve snow. Essentially it's not going well, the German economy has lost 1.4% growth in 1 year. The Germans should be a lot higher than this seeing as they're the biggest economy in Europe. The recession in  the rest of Europe is going to hit them hard, I wouldn't be surprised if they go into one as well.  

 The German economy narrowly missed recession today. That may not happen in the Future.

France entered its third recession today, which shows how well Hollande's policy of tax the people till 'they're bled white' (to quote Clemenceau) is going. The problem with the French economy is that it is very inefficient and has been so for a long time. Three hour lunch breaks and some of the strictest employment regulations in Europe says it all. There is very little work because of government intervention and no actual desire form the French people to knuckle down. They'll pay for this very hard, 10.6% unemployment is nowhere near the peak.

Hollande's vision of what makes a good economy is rather clouded. My advice is not to be so wet.

And what of the rest of Europe? Nine members of the Eurozone are in recession. Spain has 27% of its population unemployed. Recently Greece has been re-classified as an emerging economy in line with Botswana or Tibet. There is no hope within the Eurozone because countries are reluctant to overcome their inefficiencies which a single currency demands.

The ECB cannot really help much eithe,; earlier this year it lowered interest rates to 0.5%. That's fine if there is credit in a country but there is none in Europe at this moment because of the ongoing crisis. The wacky smash and grab policy of raiding people's savings will not help this problem. I'd watch out for a banking crisis in the next few years.

The European Economy is getting to a point where countries in Europe are doing worse than some in Third World Africa. 

How do we compare then. Well we have just better growth than Germany of 0.3%. We haven't had a recession since the days of Gordon Brown as the one last year was recently discovered to have never happened. The only way is up for the moment. Nor do we have the problems of a single currency or any of the financial controls placed upon us by being in the Euro. So I think we'll do fairly well compared to Europe in the next few years. This is in spite of having a trade policy that makes it so difficult to trade with anyone not on the continent. And Nick Clegg thinks Europe is the economic future, Greece can't even ship in medicine, most African states can. 

Comparatively the UK economy is doing well. Once we get over the hurdles of our debt we will be doing better than the rest of Europe.