The Exceedingly Late #WeeklyPollLowdown

#ThingsElliottSays has received a number of complaints. Of course there is the usual garbage from disgruntled YI members, Sarah Jane, and Cllr Sam Fletcher but this time some eagle eyed readers have pointed out something I am prepared to act upon. The 'weekly' poll put up at the end of February or the beginning of March has yet to finish. Bet you're all excited to see the final results come in.

With 195 there is a very good sample of votes and therefore it can be said with some degree of certainty that the majority of people think the Church of England does have some sway on politics. However, a lot of people still think it has no influence on the nations decision making process.

Does the Church of England have any sway on Politics nowadays?

Yes	24%
A bit	35%
No	41%
Unsure	1%

Total votes: 195

The Church seems to have a very limited, if not any power over parliament and its decisions. Of course have a special slot in the House of Lords and the Church of England is still in theory a cornerstone in our constitution that outlines the theocratic absolutist monarchy we live in, but they are no longer striking accord with the legislators.

On social issues the Church has very little power when it comes Acts of Parliament. The Church has opposed greater rights for gay people and women bishops until pretty recently in the grand scheme of things. However, this didn't stop Parliament passing the Equal Marriage Act or pushing for women to have a more equal status for society. Whatever people's views are on the subject the Church is seen by the majority of legislators, many of them committed Christians, as not in touch with modern life.

The Church.

The Church seems to do much better on the face of it at influencing the powers that be on economic matters. Their messages are used especially by the Labour party to promote their ideas of equality. The living wage and zero contract hours have all been backed by the Church of England. This seems somewhat bizarre as the Church comments on Hayek and Keynes using the bible. #ThingsElliottSays does not remember the passage of Jesus backing the living wage*. It seems like the Church has completely gone back on the previous saying of 'the Church of England is the Conservative Party at prayer'. It's backed Labour a lot over recent years, but it is following not leading. Perhaps this is because the Church and its bureaucracy is run more by a metropolitan elite like Labour?

Results of a Con Home poll on the Church's political leanings.

What's most interesting about the state of the Church of England is that when it comes to politics most people form their own views. Look at Dave for instance, a committed Anglican who has backed gay marriage to the hills. Even amongst its active membership the Church finds problems influencing them on matters of politics.

Vote in the next poll.

*Please do not start a theological debate over this point.

Weekly Poll Lowdown

In this weekly poll I asked you to become YouGov (or more realistically Betfred or Ladbrokes). You seem to think that by the end of this year the Conservatives will be ahead in the polls. A fair proportion also believe that things will stay as they are with Labour being in the lead. Some mad people think the UKIP will take the lead in the polls and the most insane of you believe the Lib Dems will have the highest proportion of votes. I think 4% of you need to see some sort of therapist.

Which Party will have the largest percentage of the votes by the end of this year?

Conservative	43%
Labour	34%
Lib Dem	4%
UKIP	20%
No Idea	0%

Total votes: 56

Before I essentially start stabbing into the dark to try and predict what is going on I must say that any predictions are based on current trends. Trends can change, events can happen. This is why interpreting the results of a poll are so hard, a poll is almost out of date the moment it is published in this weird political whirlpool that exists in Westminster.

Personally though I could see the Conservatives having some sort of lead in polling by December 2014. Since the Autumn Statement, which was in December or winter for some reason, there has been a growing belief that the Conservatives have got it right on the economy and that the United Kingdom is surging upwards at a decent pace. It's pretty hard to argue with 1% growth figures and ones which are predicted to be over 2% this year.

Coupled with this is employment is up by 1.6 million since 2010 and is likely to further increase. Unemployment is also tumbling. Last month saw the second biggest fall on record so that now 7.1% of the workforce are unemployed (closing in on the Bank of England 7% unemployment level for considering raising interest rates). In fact in the last few months the decline in unemployment has been great enough for it to be likely to reach just above or at the pre-recession level by the General Election.

Labour is also all over the place like a very confused octopus. Labour have picked too many and terrible choices of things to talk about over the last few months. For example no one trusts Labour on welfare and yet for half of January they have chosen to lecture the British people about how to reform the failed system they created. It's no wonder the public see the Conservatives as best to deal with welfare. For the last month as well they have been talking about immigration, an issue with very strong opinions. Yet Labour did the most damage by applying no restrictions on immigration and not implementing migration controls with the rest of Europe. Their choices have been poor but selecting two major issues in one month is almost as bad, if I were the average voter I'd be perplexed by what is going on.

The one area where Labour has been concentrating on, and will continue to do so because they has positioned themselves to the point where they can no longer stop, is the cost of living.  There are many problems with putting all your eggs in this basket. Firstly it is marketed as a cost of living crisis. As was pointed out by Andrew Neil, the idea this is a crisis is completely hyperbolic as retail sales are going up caused by middle and low earners spending more. Secondly everyone always complains about the cost of living even in the best economic climates. This is rightly so as people want to keep as much of their own money but this means it has never been a deciding factor in a General Election. The best way to talk about the cost of living is to target a few substantial issues and then talk about them lots, like the Conservatives have done with fuel duty. You don't get anywhere by complaining about everything and therefore nothing. Lastly, although I would not be as brave as the Government or Gudio Fawkes to proclaim the cost of living problem is over, things can only get better from here on in as we have seen with high predicted growth rates and pretty low inflation. There is clearly a shift in opinions on the squeeze.

With these general trends considered I could imagine a 2 or 3 % lead in the polls for the Conservatives  by December 2014. I believe the tide of Labour leading in the polls will turn sometime over the summer. It's not going to get any better for Labour considering the economics and their past record of picking poor places to make a political stand.

Vote in the new poll. 

The Weekly Poll Lowdown (with a 2 and 1/2 week delay)

After a fairly long break of 6 days and having consigned weaknesses of 1920s Japanese Democracy and Mercantilism to the history books, #ThingsElliottSays has returned for a weekly (with a 2 and 1/2 week delay) poll lowdown.

Well, with a high turnout of 72, we have pretty accurate figures which show that 60% of you believe that an investigation should be launched into the practices of the Unite Union after the Grangemouth dispute. Just over a third of you however disagree, I'd expect some of these votes are from those who are fully paid up Unite (formerly Labour Party) members.

It was all happening at Grangemouth.

Should the Government launch an inquiry into the Unite Union and their tactics during the Grangemouth dispute?

Yes.	60%
No.	35%
Unsure.	6%

Total votes: 72

Firstly let's run through what has alleged to have happened. The Unite Grangemouth leader, a chap named Stephen Deans who was involved in the voting rigging at Falkirk, has been using 'leverage tactics' against Ienos the people who run Grangemooth. 'Leverage tactics' from eyewitness reports and photos is not setting up a picket at the factory and giving a friendly wave to all the people going in, nor is it going down to London to shout at central HQ. What it involves is a strong mob turning up at bosses houses, in Hampshire not Scotland, with a giant rat threatening and bullying families and then possibly telling everyone how evil the occupant of the house is whilst distributing wanted posters of him. All of these were tactics legitimised, organised and encouraged by Mr Deans, who Dave described as a 'rogue union official'. He seems a very nice man.

Someone's house is a totally legitimate scene for an industrial dispute according to Stephen Deans.

I am very surprised it has had to come to David Cameron and the police launching investigations into this saga. As a trade union which wants to command the public's respect and wants to look after members jobs, or should want to at least, the Unite Union when it heard of what has happened should have launched an investigation. However Len McCluskey has said there will be no internal investigation and any inquiry is a 'Tory Stunt'.

I don't have Pogonophobia or anything but I really hate Len McCluskey's beard.

Then, if Unite refuses to do something any trade union should do, the onus is on the very linked Labour party to see what sort of people they're dealing with as partners and find out what has been going on. Knowing how Ed Miliband wants an inquiry into absolutely everything, from the price of bananas to energy prices (which he made rise), it's surprising Red Ed hasn't called an investigation into this. Perhaps the fact that Unite now funds 77% of the Labour Party and Labour has announced it will no longer seek to change its role with trade unions is a reason why they're pretty happy with their current trade union standing.

I don't think it is right to intimidate and call it a 'protest'. Nor should you 'protest' at somebody's house and involve their family. In fact this reminds me of the nasty days of Labour and trade unions; perhaps we are returning somewhat to that. I doubt Ed Miliband will change any laws but he seems to be very good at turning a blind eye at all the things wrong with his party. 

Vote in the new weekly poll (I promise it will be weekly).

Need I say any more.

The Not So Weekly Poll Lowdown

Yes it has been a while, about 3 weeks in fact, but finally I'm going to do the 'weekly' poll lowdown. At least the passage of time has meant a lot more people have voted which is always good. It seems that 48% of you do not agree with the Help to Buy scheme and 39% of you do.

Do you agree with the help to buy scheme?

Yes	39%
No	48%
Unsure	13%

Total votes: 110

I agree with the Help to Buy scheme. It is a very Conservative idea that people should own their homes and at the moment there is a big problem in people not owning their own homes. The ability to own your own house is a cornerstone in popular capitalism and people running their own lives. Also, Government with overly strict planning laws has contributed a lot to the rise in house prices and so the natural thing is for them to make amends and solve it.

I would like to question somewhat why we at the moment need the help to buy scheme. At the moment construction is going through a boom with growth of over 8%. Lots of houses are being built of all sorts of values for people to live in. This is all naturally occurring because of the growth in the UK not government intervention. Is it thus really necessary now for Government to step in?

Gideon having tea with some of the first Help to Buy recipients.

The Help to Buy scheme is something people should still monitor as well because it has the potential to cause a bubble. By putting lots of money into a market which is already booming we could end up with everyone, with the government's help, investing in houses and then finding out that they have lost a lot of money. Also the government is lending to people that banks have turned down for mortgages. This is not to say the Help to Buy scheme a huge bastion of irresponsible lending, because the people receiving a loan can pay a mortgage they just don't have enough money to pay all the deposit. However, there must be a reason why the banks have got such a deposit level which some people cannot afford. If there is a housing bubble this would be highly ironic because this is how the 2008 recession was caused.

Atlee's planning laws are causing a bit of problem.

Also the Help to Buy scheme doesn't actually solve the problem. House prices are too high and people still won't be able to buy homes without help from the state. Why are houses to high? Well for the most part it's because of  Town and Country Planning Act of 1949. There are so many regulations in there that houses are a lot harder to build and thus the price of housing spirals out of control.

Of course the reason for the act was the age old battle of urban sprawl and the countryside. There hasn't really been a good solution to this conflict as the falling numbers in property ownership shows this. It would be unfair to just tear up the Town and Country Planning Act and enforce mass building upon green belts. I think therefore there should be local referendum across the whole country on getting rid of certain sections of the Town and Country Planning Act so people have a choice and a vote on the matter. This would mean those who really want to defend local green belts do not get a national imposition of housing being built on green fields.

So Dave start trying to solve the root of the problem as well as using the help to buy scheme.

Make sure you vote in the new poll on the sidebar.

Weekly Poll Lowdown

These are the results of the short #ThingsElliottSays after Conservative Party Conference. It seems that people have been listening to Jerusalem too much and are dreaming of the post 1945 socialist idyll painted by Clement Atlee. 37% of you believe the land of hope is socialist whilst 31% of you believe it to be Tory. Note also that this poll received a lot of votes; let's keep it up.

The Land of Hope is ...

Tory	31%
Socialist	37%
A Separate Scotland	18%
Bongo Bongo Land	8%
Yellow, and boring	6%

Total votes: 62

For once I must whole heartedly agree with Dave. The land of hope is Tory.

Why is that so you may ask? Well with 1.4million new private sector jobs we have certainly brought back a lot of hope, as well as income, to many people and families. With a lot of these people who are now working coming off long term benefits it has brought a better life for those stuck on the dole. And for those who are stuck on the welfare trap the work for dole programme will be there to give you the experience in meaningful ways to give you an extra step up. If you don't believe me look to the USA where unemployment in New York decreased dramatically. 

We now have a lot to hope about for the standards of living. A Tax cut of £700 for 25 million people is a base which we have built upon with other extras to make people's lives better. What's even more with an economy which is the fastest growing in the West living standards are increasing, as well as jobs.

And what of houses? The first time buyer can now look to aid from the government with the help to buy loan scheme so that we can truly get people mortgages to live in their own house. Right to buy for council tenants has also been brought back by this government. Arguably more importantly banks are being returned by this government from state ownership to public ownership, it is becoming easier to get a loan or mortgage every day.

 

So there you are, a lot of things to look forward to for the future without being at all complacent from the Conservatives. The next few months will be slightly easier but it will get better and you can judge us on this at the next General Election.

Vote in the new poll on the sidebar.

Weekly Poll Lowdown

Now that socialism is alive and well in the Labour Party I asked you what you thought about it. 54% of you have decried Socialism whilst 40% of you have backed the Labour Party in their unaccounted and unusable  policies. This either means that a lot of you are having a joke or are big Labour supporters who, in the largest display ever of stupidity over sense, back a Labour government in 2015. If you're the later I hope my blog highly annoys you.

Are you looking forward to a Labour Government which will bring back socialism and has £28 billion of spending unaccounted for?

Yes	40%
No	54%
Unsure	6%

Total votes: 35

How on Earth can the electorate back a socialist government? Admittedly some people have probably forgotten what Britain was like in the 1960s and 1970s, but history, when it is so clear that socialism is a death sentence for the country, is not the way to go around winning elections. The electorate will not want a return to a darker Britain where rubbish piled up in the streets, manufacturing declined, unemployment grew, the state controlled your lives and you paid the state twice when drinking in a state run pub. 

Vote Labour for Socialist failure.

Red Ed's policies have become greater than laughable. An apprenticeship programme illegal under European Law. Nationalisation of privately held land when the state deems it fit to take. Fixing prices on energy so that everyone pays more because nobody on the Labour front bench wanted to use any logic. Oh yes and, the icing on the cake, none of the new ideas for 'government'* are costed at all. So spending is going up, up, up and so is the debt and deficit. The UK's economic situation would be getting worse under Labour. 

But why has Labour done this? We know these are not vote winning ideas. Its because they're so much controlled by the trade unions, Especially Ed Miliband, that all the policies are written by them. A Labour government is really a Unite government. Which is good if you're a civil servant paid at £50,000 who is usually idle or trying to destroy all government policy; not so good if you're a hard working person. Ed Miliband is too weak to do the right thing for people.

Indeed it is only the Conservative who are for the population of the UK. If you're a hard working person who wants to improve their lives make sure you vote Conservative.

Vote Conservative.

*It's very hard to call it government rather than a massive mess.

Weekly Poll Lowdown

Well it seems the Lib Dem conference is too boring to even comment upon. Only 4 of you voted and half of those people were either sarcastic or Lib Dem members when they said 'I love Lib Dem conferences. Why am I not there now?'. 

What do you think of the Lib Dem conference.

Boring!!!	25%
I was excited by the prospect of a by-election when Ed Davey was nearly killed by a falling sign.	25%
I am a keen beard spotter so am watching every moment, but not for the politics.	0%
I love Lib Dem conferences. Why am I not there now?	50%

Total votes: 4

I think the Lib Dem conferences are pointless. Nothing really went on of any interest except Ed Davey getting attacked by a sign that fell over in the wind. I guess wind power is not as friendly as Ed wishes to make out.

The Lib Dem conference seemed to be focussed around two things this year. Firstly a 5p charge on carrier bags which is a terrible policy because this industry employs many people and doesn't solve the problem of a cleaner environment because those who throw litter will still be doing so. Also why is this suddenly a Lib Dem flagship policy it's not a vote winner but yet that was the only policy being talked about. Nobody will say in 2015 "I'm voting Lib Dem because I want to pay 5p for every carrier bag". Nick Clegg really needs to think more about saving his seats not coming up with pointless nonsense.

The new enemy of the state, those who use plastic bags to go shopping.

The other big story was the fact that Vince Cable, the Anti-Business Secretary, made a fuss by coming out as opposed to the Lib Dem leadership and its economic policies. Vince Cable has done bugger all in his job except slap more regulation on business and hike across the Indian Sub Continent in a desperate attempt to increase trade despite the EU tariffs. This is not the way to run a department if we're to grow the economy, create jobs and make everyone's lives better. Cable's policies are from the dark days of a command economy where everyone was equal, equally poor and abused by the state. It's a wonder he still has a job, please fire him Dave. 

Vince has caused great friction, not just with Conservatives but also with Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander who have enough brains to realise he will try for the leadership of the party and try take it to the left of Social Democracy. Both actions would destroy what's left of the party. But this may happen anyway due to the Lib Dems madly loving the good Dr just because he says that he alone predicted the crash. However this is not true because everyone could see a new recession coming apart from Gordon Brown*. I bet even Napoleon III predicted the crash, and he's been dead for over one hundred years. 

Dr Vince Cable looking down upon the mere people who must be controlled by a state run economy.

So there we are, a boring conference where the most major things were Ed Davey's near death experience, carrier bags becoming top Lib Dem priority and a mad and backward seventy year old man upsetting everyone. This picture of course makes everyone want to vote Lib Dem. I hope Seb realises soon the Lib Dem bird is dead. 

RIP

*If we are realistic he could see it coming too because he increased state spending to avoid small recessions in 2006 and 2007, which made the 2008 crash worse for the UK. Gordon just said stupidly "we have ended boom and bust".

Vote in the new poll on the sidebar.