Introducing Jane Hunt

Last night Sam and I met Jane Hunt, the new Conservative Candidate for Nottingham South. My first impressions of Jane is that she is an amazingly lovely lady, really down to earth and very competent.

Jane was selected last Saturday by the members of Nottingham South who are stepping up their efforts to get out on the campaign trail to get her elected. She has really given the Conservatives in Nottingham a massive kick start so don't be surprised to see us out and about using every able hour to speak to residents of the city. Today for example Jane got a large amount of activists out in Wollaton and worked with the great Conservative councillors Georgina and Eileen to gather and listen to the opinions of residents. Jane and the Wollaton councillors hopes to take action on a number of issues raised to today.

Out and about in Wollaton West today.

At our meeting with Jane we discussed her background. Jane has worked as a civil servant, a charity, a senior manager in a commercial business and as case worker for Nicky Morgan MP. Jane is currently a Charnwood Borough councillor with a cabinet for position housing and has some other responsibilities. she has also stood as a parliamentary candidate twice in Leicester. In 2010 she contested the seat of Keith Vaz and got such a big swing to the Conservatives that he demanded a recount, which turned out to give Jane a few more votes. Furthermore, Jane has been married to her Husband Tim and has two teenage children. Jane has certainly got the life experience, the political skill and a loving family to give her the abilities to fight hard for the interests of the residents of Nottingham South.

Jane with the Nottingham Conservative community leaders.

In our meeting also Jane, Sam and I discussed in brief what the people of Nottingham South need. Education is of course very high on the list because the Labour run Nottingham City Council have consistently failed at providing a decent education for children. It is only now with Michael Gove's free schools and academies that some of the Nottingham state schools are improving in GCSE and Ofsted results. If elected Jane hopes to bring change to the Nottingham school system with her experience as a school governor but also by working with the great education reforms under the Conservative led Government.

Important to Jane is also the student population. Good integration with the community and listening to their needs are high on her agenda. Students have rights too and Jane sounds like she knows how to make sure the council recognises that. In Charnwood Jane actually represents the ward which contains Loughborough University. She thus has lots of experience with the issues that students face with crime, bins and housing.

Sam and I talking about student issues with Jane.

Jane also is very thankful of the support she has so far received in congratulations from NUCA members. Jane really appreciates how key NUCA will be in the 2015 General Election. She is very keen to meet all the members as soon as possible to inspire them to come out and help her bring about a Conservative government and better representation for Nottingham. Jane is going to be helping NUCA a lot over the next year and a bit. It's great to see that already lots of NUCA members have already signed up to a mass campaigning session very soon.

Jane with Dave.

Jane is an amazing candidate. I'd stick my neck out and say she is the best parliamentary candidate that I have met. I hope she is pleased with that recommendation because I am confident that in just over a years time she'll be told the same thing by the thousands of people in Nottingham when she is elected as the next MP here.

In the words of Winston Churchill, "Let us go forward together!"

Campaigning In The Valleys

Whenever I here about a campaign with the Conservatives locally I am always there. The last day I was out on the streets was Thursday helping out in the Radford and Park by-election. Sadly we lost this to Labour but we won in the Park polling district where we campaigned the most, a good base for Rowena Holland in 2015. I urge everyone in the Conservatives to get out and help in the their  local campaigns, especially if it is in a 2015 campaign. To know what's going on sign up to Team 2015 and keep a look out for information from local Tories.

Campaigning with Tory 2015 candidate Rowena Holland.

And this is where the Welsh come in. Wales CF has added a campaigning button to their website to keep everyone up to date of what's going on in 2015. So far three active campaigning seats have been noted in Wales they are Cardiff North, Gower and the Vale of Glamorgan. On the website you can see all the statistics about the seats, where they are and who to contact about campaigns. Also on there will be appearing information about the next campaign going on.

We really need to win/hold these seats in 2015 if there is to be any chance of a Conservative led government. The seat of Gower was just of reach of the Tories in 2015 and has been Labour held for 104 years, lets hope 2015 is the last year of Labour control. Conservatives of the world, unite.

Wales Conservatives out and about in the Valleys.

 To view the Wales CF website click here.

It Will Cost You

"There is no such thing as a free lunch" said Milton Friedman and many other people before and after him. And he is right. If the Labour Party gain power in 2015 everyone in the country is going to see their costs rise dramatically.

Under the last Labour government we had lots of money spent in the country on benefits, the NHS and education, to name but a few areas. What were the results? With benefits the Government gave people more money than most working people could dream of. There were 13,000 deaths covered up by the Labour Health Secretary, Andy Burnham. Our education system also decreased in quality and fell down the world rankings.

The main problem was that Labour just threw money at things and thus it was virtually all wasted. But that money had to come from somewhere so if it wasn't through borrowing, which is now a £19,000 weight around every person, it was through tax rises. Under Labour, especially towards the end when the current Shadow Front Bench were in control, petrol prices continually went up, the 10p tax rate was scrapped and council tax was raised 27 times.

The days of Gordon Brown we saw the biggest assault on people's cost of living ever made by a Government.

And now they want to do it again. Under Ed Miliband, as Gordon Brown's Energy and Climate Change Secretary, energy bills doubled and now he wants to increase them again by carbon targets which will force even more people into fuel poverty. This is on top of the their continual support for increasing subsidies for inefficient energy sources such as wind turbines which this government has cut. 

Petrol too is another area Labour will target. If Labour had won in 2010 it would be 13p more expensive at this moment to fill up a car. There would still be 6 more planned fuel duty rises by Labour after 2015 had it not be for the Conservatives in Government. What's to say Labour won't bring these back in 2015.

It has already been signalled by the markets that Labour's plans for more debt will raise borrowing rates and that will have effects on all sorts of things. The hardest hit from that would be those with a mortgage who will see £1,000 added to their bills if borrowing is raised by only 1%. It could of course be higher.

Labour also want to cap pension spending which means no more Triple Lock mechanism for pensioners that they would always see a pensions rise. The Triple Lock means that pension will rise by either the amount of inflation, the average rise in earnings or 2.5%, whichever is the highest. That's all set to go with Red Ed at the helm.

Of course Council Tax will also rise under Labour, like it has done in nearly every single Labour controlled council. Labour councils have seen a doubling in their bills of late whilst the average Conservative council reduced their tax bill by 9.3%. When Ed Miliband says he is opposed to these freezes it is clear we will return to the past where council tax rose and rose and then rose again.

This of course forgets the main problem with a Labour Government and that's an increase in debt. It is calculated that each family would owe just shy of £3,000 extra if Labour are allowed to borrow £50 billion more as they have planned. Where will that money be spent? Well we can tell from their opposition to a benefits cap that benefits will rise. It's also clear that more waste of time infrastructure projects will continue like HS2. Imagine a HS3 or 4, this country would be broke pretty soon. 

But how much will this add up to for you? Well you can now find out at http://costoflabour.com/ where it asks you a few simple questions about what you do and calculates exactly what a Labour Government would cost you. Some people could be over £2,000 worse off! I tried it and if I was still a student, which I won't be shortly after the next general election, I would have to pay £125 extra (plus the debt of course). But  when I leave Nottingham it will be a sad day in two ways because my costs would rise to £519. Excellent. If you are planning to vote Labour you may need to start saving now. 

I'm critical of most government moves to raise the cost of living. I do it when the Conservatives back HS2 and I put pressure on them to lower Energy subsidises. Somebody needs to say something about the costs that the majority have to face for just living. Some people would say this government has not lived up to expectations of cutting living costs, which I think is unfair considering they have done a lot of good things, for example a £700 cut in income tax for 25 million people. But imagine what it would be like under Labour and Ed Miliband.

Weekly Poll Lowdown

 'And now its time for a result, I can see the returning officer move to the front'

"As the future returning officer for the constituency of the United Kingdom I declare the results are as follows:

What do you think will be the outcome of the next general election in 2015?

Conservative Majority.	31%
Conservative Minority.	14%
Conservative Lib Dem Coalition.	7%
Labour Lib Dem Coalition.	12%
Labour Minority.	5%
Labour Majority.	31%

Total votes: 42

Therefore a Conservative Majority or a Labour Majority (which ever way you like to look at this one) has been duly elected to serve."

This was quite close actually, very much like how 2015 will be. Just more of you think that during the 2015 General Election the Conservatives will win in some shape or form rather than the Labour Party. This is a vast improvement in optimism for a Conservative Majority compared to the last time I conducted this poll way in the dark old days post Eastleigh by-election and before the Budget (see http://thingselliottsays.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/weekly-poll-lowdown.html). Back then only 5% of you thought the Conservatives would win an outright majority.

 Things are looking better for the Conservatives than in February and March.

So what does this tell us? Because this blog is of the Tory persuasion its shows a heightening in the mood of the Conservative Party and guess why that is? Yes the economy, see last General Election weekly poll lowdown for my prediction that the economy was key. If the economy does particularly well George Osborne is in for a real treat as well because it means the deficit goes down faster with greater tax revenue. However, we are still nowhere near removing it by 2015, as he said in 2010. Many in the party will say the best laid plans and all that. I on the other hand think we should still start pushing for these bigger cuts to free up business even more.

 Things are looking better for Gideon and his economic plan.

But there is a word of warning over this 'economic boom'. It's not actually here yet and is likely to be smaller than everyone at the moment is seemingly making it out to be. Perhaps, during silly season, the Tories are a bit too optimistic. The polls are getting better and Labour are losing argument after argument but we haven't got the full public confidence which is needed to start thinking in positives. I now believe we can get a majority in 2015 but we really need to have a greater amount of positive economic figures. Growth is good, but to be able to solve the main crisis of deficit and debt would be better. This is one of the things that could convince the doubters in the country that the Conservatives are up to the job, these are the people who are supposed to be our core voters as well.

Please vote in the new poll on the sidebar.

Not So Lobbying Crosby

I think Labour's new scapegoat is Lynton Crosby, although arguably this isn't new looking back on how many times Ken Livingstone kept mentioning Lynton Crosby in the London Mayoral Elections. Labour are picking out policy moves from the government out of a hat and blaming Lynton Crosby for lobbying. Of course there is no evidence for this and thus in all likelihood isn't true.

Lynton Crosby's face is not yet known so he has to carry a caption around with him always.

This all started with the delays in government policy over plain cigarette packaging and minimum alcohol pricing. Labour said "aha, this is because Lynton Crosby also works for a tobacco company and is thus lobbying the Prime Minister." However, there is no evidence for that at all. The Labour Party are just finding casual links. Nick Clegg, the PM, Lynton Crosby, the Conservative Party and virtually everyone except Red Ed have said that there has been no lobbying. Indeed it is more likely, that if there was any lobbying it was from Ken Clarke who is actually in the government, works for tobacco firms and is well known to like a drink.

 Maybe Ken Clarke is the one lobbying the government, if that is happening at all.

There are many alternative ideas to Labour's ripping open a live kid goat thesis on plain packaging and alcohol pricing. Let's say Lynton Crosby is involved in the decision to ditch the cigarette and beer policies. It could be because as Lynton says "he is getting rid of the barnacles off the boat." These policies could be seen as negative to the electorate and not on beat with his proposed message for the Conservatives in 2015 and is thus ditching them. Personally I don't see this as very likely considering how awfully in favour Dave is in limiting people's choices of late.

The Government's reason for having the delays is to see the results of what is going on in Australia and in Scotland may be what is going on. This makes most logical sense considering all these new policies are so new in implementation we don't know yet if this actually is a benefit to health. It may not be and thus cheesing off ordinary people is not necessary.

And on cheesing off it could be that the Government have decided that they don't like this idea. This is actually consistent with what Labour say. For all their hot air over plain cigarette packaging and minimum alcohol pricing all previous Labour Health Secretaries think it would be a disaster (seefor the full details http://order-order.com/2013/07/13/labour-ministers-opposed-plain-packaging/ ). Andy Burnham, Labour Shadow Secretary State for Health,  has said "No studies have shown that introducing plain packaging of tobacco products would cut the number of young people smoking .... we would need strong and convincing evidence showing the health benefits of this policy before it would be acceptable."

Then we move into the manifest absurdities which make up the twisted logic of Labour Central Office. They're now saying Lynton Crosby was responsible for the 'privatisation of the NHS' in the early stages of the government. Just ignore for the moment the stupidity of not using facts, the NHS hasn't been privatised. Indeed Lynton after the general election did get employed by a health company but wasn't employed by the Conservatives till November 2012, not starting till January 2013. But the Health and Social Care Act received Royal Assent in March 2012 so Lynton couldn't possibly be lobbying for the non-'privatisation of the NHS' because he wasn't anywhere near the government till almost a year after it was passed. Unless Red Ed believes Lynton Crosby has invented a time machine then I think he should take a look at his brain and try reassemble the lobes to try form a coherent argument. 

I actually feel a bit for Lynton Crosby. The Labour Party say he is the most evil being since Satan himself, but even if that were true he is being wrongly targeted. It's quite clear Labour are either victims of their own poor policies on education, and thus have no logic, or are just causing trouble. And they are doing this probably because they are running around with arms waving in the air panicking about a diminishing poll lead. 

The logical lunatics have taken over the Asylum (other wise known as Red Ed's brain).

Gap in the Market

Have you had a look at the Unite polling by Lord Ashcroft? Do, it makes good reading to see that only 12% of Trade Unionists want to be Labour party members and 53% of Trade Unionists would not opt into the political party fund. This is bad news for the Labour Party because funding will be cut off and it shows they are not really that in touch with what is their own stereotypical voter base.

 Everyday Ed Miliband becomes more out of touch with the public. No wonder not even Trade Unionists will back him.

But actually this poll is worse for the Conservatives because only 23% of Trade Unionists, who are a good representation of ordinary people, will vote for the Tories in 2015. How can this problem be overcome?

As a foreword nobody should expect a miracle sized amount of Trade Unionists to vote Conservative. The majority of unionists will be tribal or in the public sector who in no way are going to become Conservative voters. But considering that the Conservative Party needs to gain 3% in the polls an attempt should be made to try gain around 10% of trade unionist voters and importantly by doing this will become closer to getting real people in the country to vote for them. The idea at the moment of an 'aspiration nation' is good but the Tory Party must expand and toot three key areas greatly to win these voters and in 2015.  

We have got to keep proving as a party that we are an 'aspiration nation'. Everything needs to be centred round this and policies must be centred around ordinary people.

Education and Training is very important and has arguably been the most successful area of government policy. Parents are very keen children have a decent education and Academies and Free Schools have been improving this throughout the country. But what is also important is the alternatives to secondary school education and university. The lie of university for everyone has been well exposed and people are now looking towards apprenticeships and skill training for a future career. The Conservatives have achieved 63 per cent increase in apprenticeships because of investment. Such moves need to be made easier with greater benefits for firms, a tax cut for employing apprentices for example.

Taxes are down for the average family in the country but we could do more. Taking out of tax those who earn £10,000 or under is a good policy. Soon everyone hit but Gordon Browns 10p tax rate hike will be out of tax completely. But what about National Insurance for employer and employee which is taken off people's pay packet? There has been little change there and VAT has gone up to boot, not good. And what of those slightly above average? Middle earners are paying the most out of all the levels of tax in the country which is surely not good to inspire people to better their lives. Tax cuts for the average family are what is needed more than ever. We've made a good start but I'd like to see more in the 2014 budget. 

The price of basic commodities that everyone uses must come down too. The government has a large amount of control over the cost of items such as beer and petrol and it should be using this power to keep prices lower when too high. Take fuel duty, the government has already frozen and cut this to a small extent resulting in a motorist being 13p better off per litre than under Labour. However, there is still more to do as the average family still spends £1,700 in filling up their car. This turns out to be one tenth of a families salary so technically most families in the UK suffer from fuel poverty when driving. A sizeable cut in fuel duty and more robust measures to stop cartels would improve people's lives greatly.

The Conservative Party is starting to really get in touch with ordinary families but there is a long way to go before Britain truly is an 'aspiration nation'. There is a gap in the political market because the Unite Ashcroft poll shows Labour is failing on all these three areas. Only then will we win enough Trade Unionists and ordinary people's votes to form a government in 2015. 

More Positive News

More positive news now. These are 12 things we the Tories have done. On certain areas we should be doing better i.e. deficit and immigration but we have been fairly successful in bringing them down. This is what we Conservatives have to fight the upcoming elections on and maybe the General Election. We should be proud that we have had effect in all these areas, although some more than others.

Weekly Poll Lowdown

As the returning officer I declare that a Labour Majority is elected to the constituency of the United Kingdom in 2015. The results are as follows.

Con Majority	1 (5%)
Con/Lib Dem Coalition	1 (5%)
Con Minority	6 (30%)
Another General Election	0 (0%)
Lab Minority	3 (15%)
Lab/Lib Dem Coalition	1 (5%)
Lab Majority	8 (40%)

The more time that passes the more I personally become of the opinion that we will do badly in the General Election in 2015. Last year in March if you asked me I would have said that we would win 2015 if we put in the effort. Now I doubt we can actually win a even the most seats in Parliament. Personally I'm still far from thinking that Labour will get anything resembling a majority. Ashcroft's poll of an 84 majority is probably a bit pessimistic considering its not yet 2015 so a large chunk of that is probably mid-term blues. A majority of 4 is on the liberal side of likely results at the moment.

This blog is almost exclusively read by Tories and as 60% of you are on the pessimistic side with only 5% saying the Tories can win a majority the situation at the moment does look bleak.

The main problem is of course the economy and it's not necessarily growth either because as I've said before the debt this year is going to go up and the deficit is predicted to go up to. We may be in coalition but we need to push hard to reverse these facts otherwise this country is going to be a mess. If Labour get in in 2015 we won't get another realistic chance to solve this problem till 2020 by which time we'll be seemingly months from disaster. We can only take so much debt.

It seems our party has a problem and it's that we are divided on whether to go for economic success or left wing consensus. For the moment the leadership not fully going for economic liberalisation but if we don't change that not only will party members be furious but the electorate won't vote for us. This is not like Thatcher in the early 80s either, she cut inflation after a few years but became unpopular due to high unemployment. She actually achieved her objectives, not even the Government thinks they're going to bring get rid of the deficit by 2015.

Please vote in the next poll.