He’s not the Messiah; he’s a very naughty boy!

Well as we all expected Chris Huhne is guilty of perverting the court of justice. Today he changed his plea in court and will probably be sentenced shortly for an offence that he is 90% likely to go to jail for. Chris Huhne, as you might remember, was the man once praised and virtually worshipped by the Liberal Democrats. He was almost their leader and took on the problems of fossil fuel energy so that we have no power for the next decade or so. Now his career is in ruins, his MP role is untenable. This means really only one thing. A by-election.

Here are the results from Eastleigh at the General Election 2010.

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	+/- %
Lib Dems	Chris Huhne	24,966	46.5	+8.2
Conservative	Maria Hutchings	21,102	39.3	+2.1
Labour	Leo Barraclough	5,153	9.6	−11.5
UKIP	Ray Finch	1,933	3.6	+0.2
English Democrats	Tony Pewsey	249	0.5	N/A
National Liberal Party- Third Way	Keith Low	93	0.2	N/A
Majority		3,864	7.2
Turnout		53,650	69.3	+4.9
Lib Dem hold		swing	3

This is a winnable Conservative Seat. The Lib Dems will lose many votes because they are very unpopular, only the core party will support them (and at the recent by-elections this wasn't enough to win back a deposit). That being said there will be a larger core Lib Dem vote, as they currently hold the seat, so I wouldn't expect them to receive less than 20% of the vote (but who knows). Some of the previous Lib Dem voters will not turn out at all. Many of them however will turn to Labour but will it be enough? Labour’s core vote in Eastleigh is at most 26% or 14,000 votes, this is the result from 1997 which the Labour party in no way could match today. They are likely to double the % of the vote they got in 2010 and will be pushing for a slim win.

The Conservatives at this point will not be in as good a position as 2010. Many voters will not turn out and some will vote UKIP. But I think due to the EU announcement and a slight increase in Conservative popularity due to the recent benefits votes and EU referendum I do not see the Conservatives doing so badly that the Lib Dems or even Labour takes the seat.

To combat UKIP there would be a strong argument of a vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour. This will not work for some people, UKIP’s vote share I predict will double at least. I believe though that we have a good chance of winning this seat but we must be very active in this area in order to win it. I think I’ll explore later what fighting a by-election in Eastleigh would mean for the Coalition in another Blog Post soon, because it’s going to be bloody.