Sarah Teather to Leave the Lib Dems

Sarah Teather MP, branded by #ThingsElliottSays as one of the worst MPs in Parliament, has decided the Lib Dems are not for her anymore and will not stand in her seat of Brent Central at the next General Election.

Sarah Teather will leave the Lib Dems in 2015.

I'm not surprised Sarah Teather has left the Lib Dems because politically she is not really close to social democratic philosophy or to what the party actually stands for. Really Sarah belongs in the Labour Party, it's just like a lot of Lib Dem voters they're not fond of the trade union links or the Iraq war. So like many Lib Dem voters that have spurned the party for Labour once in government, Sarah has followed.

But why now? Of course the obvious answer is that she wants to create controversy for Nick Clegg and challenge party positions on Economy, tuition fees, nuclear power, an independent nuclear deterrent, a 50p top rate of tax, welfare, fracking and immigration (all of these are up for the vote in the up and coming Lib Dem conference). The fact that her seat of Brent Central has a 1500 majority is a factor too, she will obviously lose to Labour at the next election.

Many Lib Dems however believe that Sarah Teather is actually a careerist and has herself instead of what is right and wrong as her first priority. This can be shown quite well when she didn't vote for several bills on welfare and education, despite being a government education minister. This in itself is not self interest, she did this on a point of conscience. But she refused to step down from her job afterwards as she was just interested in continuing with her career. She was thus disgracefully sacked by Dave in the next government re-shuffle.

When she returned to the backbenches she was obviously not very happy and started causing trouble by not backing government bills. This in itself could be seen as something of noble principle. I think it would be wrong to say that there is no element of this, but according to many Lib Dem activists this was an act of spite. Her voting against the Equal Marriage Bill, despite saying she supported it days before, was evidence of this to many Lib Dems and she lost lots of respect in the party. 'She was a careerist without a career' said a Lib Dem activist to the Guardian and so with no future prospects and a seat she was almost certainly going to lose she has decided to leave the Lib Dems and cause more trouble for Cleggers.

Sarah has lied on many things not just gay marriage.

Sarah Teather started out as the bright young thing of the House of Commons after the Brent East by-election of 2003. She will now leave the same house in disgrace. It would be unfair to say that she has no principles, but it is clear that her career as a politician was more important to her. This is not the type of politician our country should be run by and thus she has the title of 'Possibly the Worst MP in Parliament'.

In da House, but not for much longer.

Leafleting in March North

Yesterday I got up pretty early so I could get a bus to March, not the month a town near Wisbech, to help out in the March North By-election.

 Lots of In Touch Leaflets delivered yesterday.

There is currently a vacancy on March Town Council for the three member ward of March North. I delivered over 300 leaflets to the good people of March for the Conservative Candidate Andrew Donnelly. Andrew is a man of great experience, having previously served on the Town Council, who has lived for a long time in the ward. A hard worker to go with the rest of the Conservatives in the town who have saved the City Road toilets and started to roll out super fast broadband amongst many things. 

On polling day, which is Thursday 19th September, there will be a choice between Andrew, a Lib Dem and an Independent. This will be an interesting by-election because in the same ward earlier this year the Conservatives held onto one of the seats by just 3 votes. Thus people really need to come out and support Andrew to make sure he gets in, it will be close. 

Out campaigning in a residential area, look at the lovely blue sky.

I'd also like to point out some inconsistencies in what the Lib Dem candidate, the main opposition, is saying. Firstly when talking about a particular empty shop in the town he said 'we can't afford to let March get into a spiral of economic decline'. This is very true, however this shop will in the next few weeks be made into a new Iceland.

As many Lib Dems do, there is also complaints that the Conservatives have cut bus subsidies. This is true but the services that are cut are ones for very late at night so will not leave residents 'isolated' as the Lib Dem claims. As testament to the buses in March I came by Bus from Wisbech very early in the morning.

 Don't vote for the Lib Dem candidate.

One last, and not well thought out, gripe by the Lib Dem is a complaint that only 9/10 of street lights that are currently being replaced will be put back in. This is correct but is because the street lights will be modern and brighter so the extra costs are not needed. Similar things that have happened in other areas of March have led to brighter streets at night, not something to really complain about.

 I also found #ThingsElliottSays lane.

So I'd ignore this waste of time Lib Dem candidate and back the Conservatives. Andrew will make a great councillor for March.

What is a Mansion?

Today we are wrestling with the age old question that haunts the Liberal Democrats. What defines a mansion? Well it turns out that a Lib Dem mansion is a lot pokier than you might imagine.

Since its socialist turn, the Liberal Democrats have been obsessed about a mansion tax. Vince Cable, that great bastion of a command economy, might as well be saying "How dare the rich own mansions especially when they have worked hard to get them. We should penalise them for working hard and they can give money to the state to hand out to the people obviously oppressed. No matter that these mansion owners have added value to the country through jobs, ideas and making people's lives better off. We don't want people like that." Obviously this is all that is wrong with the Lib Dems, if you ignore that they are liars as well. 

 The main pusher behind the Lib Dem mansion tax is Vincey.

So what exactly do the Lib Dem consider to be a mansion? Well if you take the figure of £2 billion, which the Lib Dems want to raise from a mansion tax, you can work it out. But luckily you don't personally have to now because Knight Frank, the London estate agents, has already done it for you. They have found out to raise £2 billion every house valued at £1.25 million will have to have a mansion tax strapped on it. 

 This considered a Mansion if Vince Cable gets his way. Hopefully the occupier gets rather angry because this house is in Twickenham, where Vince Cable is MP. Vote him out.

Near to where I live you can probably buy a small stately home for that amount. But what is it like in London and the South East? Properties there, in the most dense part of the country, are worth a lot of money. Well it turns out that the 'squeezed middle' are going to be having a tough time because 31% of 'mansions' are terraces, 22% of 'mansions' are flats and 11% of 'mansions' are semi detached; the other 36% of mansions are detached (which can range highly in size). So a big majority of houses taxed by the Lib Dems aren't mansions and have middle income owners in them.

This is a terrible idea. A mansion is not a terraced house. Why should we slap a big tax on the 'squeezed middle' who are struggling through but only just. 

But it gets worse. A mansion tax means a revaluation of all people's houses so guess what that means. Yep everyone's council tax is going to increase. So a tax on the 'super wealthy' who live in terraced houses is actually a tax on everyone. And for those who think its just the nutty Lib Dems, well you may be surprised to hear that Ed Miliband has said he will back a mansion tax raising the same amount.

Its only the Conservatives who can stop a mansion tax and thousands of pounds being taken from people, whatever size house they live in. An English man's home is his castle, but government shouldn't be taxing everyone like it is.

Pan-Liberalism Part 2 (#ThingsSebSays)

Do you recall a post I did on the Lib Dems not being a party of liberalism a couple of weeks ago for the new Pan Liberals blog? Well we now have a rebuttal written by my friend, but sadly Lib Dem, Seb Bench. Seb claims the Lib Dems are still a party of liberalism although there has been changes from the Liberal Party of yesteryear. Make sure you read here.

 

One thing I would like to say in reply to Seb however is that the free market is not free if you break the law so those business who are fraudulent should be punished. Also here is an interesting piece on the Ford Pinto from our good friend Milton Friedman.

[Insert Title Here] Lib Dems Cock Up

Hastings and Rye Lib Dem candidate for 2015, Nick Perry, seems to have forgotten to put his own name to a personal letter. Bit of a give away that this is national Lib Dem propaganda and not some heart felt message. Wonder if he will win?

Greek Liberalism Part 1

I've wrote an article for the new Pan-Liberals blog set up by myself, a few others but mostly Dean Hyatt (a.k.a DASHPolitiek). My first article on it is about how the Lib Dems are in no way a liberal party. All the liberalism has been gone and has been replaced by left wing ideology, not good. So here it is and enjoy.

They Were All Yellow

Today the Liberal Democrats in Fenland have suffered a rather large blow because 2/3rds of them have now gone independent. Cllr Dave Patrick and Cllr Robert McLaren have decided to drop the yellow bird badge and to call themselves 'Fenland Independents'. There are a few things that is interesting to explore about their move and what we can have a good guess at what they are thinking.

 Rob and Dave.

Firstly, how can you have an independent party? If you are an independent councillor you have been elected on the basis that you are a lone wolf figure. An independent is someone who has different standpoints from other parties or has some sort of local issue that they want to address. All of these are legitimate reasons to call yourself an independent. Isn't it a bit disingenuous to put on the ballot you're an independent candidate and yet not stand for what people define as independence? When you become a group of independents you have formed a political party because not only are you not singular but there is a mix of views on issues. Unless Cllr Patrick and McLaren are clones I think they have some credibility problems with the electorate. You should tell the electorate exactly who you are politically in my opinion.* 

I also feel a bit sorry for Cllr Gavin Booth, another Lib Dem on Fenland District Council, as he is now the only Lib Dem on Fenland. Politically I don't actually mind because I don't agree with Lib Dem policy, but Gavin Booth is a nice chap from what I hear and have seen. I sat with him at a polling station for a few hours in the Wisbech St Mary by-election (see http://thingselliottsays.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/wisbech-st-mary-byelection-lessons.html) and we chatted for a good deal. But now Gavin is in a bit of a pickle because he has lost committee positions because the Lib Dems cease to be the second biggest party, which is a bit sad as he knows the local people. I will ask however for the people of Wisbech St Mary to vote Conservative in the 2015 District elections in what will be a fair fight.

 Gavin Booth spied outside a polling station during the Wisbech St Mary Byelection with excellent Tory Cllr Will Sutton.

I further ask of Dave Patrick and Robert McClaren, why have they done this? Both Cllr Patrick and McLaren seemed pretty happy in the Lib Dems since 2010 why would they move? Is it because the Lib Dems are electorally unpopular at the moment and they sense a slaughter in 2015 where they would lose their seats (the eagle eyed reader will have noticed that the local elections in Fenland are on the same day as the General)? Then why change to become independents because they only got 566 votes in 2010 across North East Cambs. Their personal following will raise that but by how far? I think it unlikely they can win in 2015 without the party base that independents, even in twos, don't have. 

  Independents in Lincolnshire all wear the same rosette but apparently are not a party.

But wait a second, maybe they do have an activist base that can be called upon. Next door to Kirkgate, Cllr Patrick and McLaren's ward, there is Waterlees where the Bucknors are Cllrs. Maybe like in Lincolnshire where there is an Independent Party (see above for my views on this). Are they going to help each other out? There is a very good chance this has happened before when you logically look at what happened in the County elections. Neither Cllr Patrick or McClaren stood for the County Council in Wisbech North that includes their ward, which is a bit odd. Virginia Bucknor however stood in Wisbech North to be councillor and it would have helped if she had less opposition. Indeed no Lib Dems stood in Wisbech North which is bizarre. There could be many reasons  for this, the most obvious are either the Lib Dems are short of candidates or there was a quasi alliance existing between Cllr Patrick and McClaren with the Bucknors. The possibility is there. 

 Virginia and Michael Bucknor possibly at a karaoke.

If it is so and the independents of Wisbech will now be working with each other in a political party independent group I would give a friendly warning to Cllrs Patrick and McClaren with their new found allies. Be very careful because from my own experience I have found the Bucknors to be bordering on bullying (see http://thingselliottsays.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/out-and-about-in-waterlees.html for my account of nastiness in the street). I have also heard rumours that Virginia is not being nice about me in front of other councillors which I find unpleasant, I hope they are not true. If you are reading this Virginia and Mike apologise so we can put aside the past and start being friendly like how Gavin Booth is. You could start by unblocking me on twitter (see http://thingselliottsays.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/blocked.html sorry about the numerous links). The maxim of 'we can tell what you're like from your friends' can only stretch so far, but If I was David Patrick or Rob McClaren I'd stay away from the Bucknors unless they make amends. 

So there you are a very interesting minor political episode. One thing that is certain however is that they were all yellow and now they are not.

I bet Robert Smith is delighted.

* At least the name 'Fenland Independents' is better than Cllr Virginia and Michael Bucknor's 'Truly Independents' because the later makes much more of a mockery of the definition of Independent.

On the Buses

The Liberal Democrats are obsessed with buses. I saw this first when I spent time at Cambridge County Council as the local party in the County spent 2/3rds of their allotted time talking about buses. Indeed from what I was told this was not unusual (see http://www.stevetierney.org/the-libs/ for a Blog Piece I did when I was at the County Council). So now the Lib Dems are proposing that under 16s have bus journeys for free despite the fact that we have a massive deficit caused by paying people extra benefits.

I say the Liberal Democrats are oddly attracted to buses because they could spend this money on other things. The reasoning behind this move is not a bad idea on the whole. Nick Clegg has said, although he is denying it now for some reason, that this will be good "to help families with their high cost of living." But surely Cleggers should be supporting those who are on the lowest wages in instead of spending money on something fairly niche. I find the choice of spending bizarre. 

The Lib Dems like a good bus. 

There is one big reason why this policy should not happen. It's very easy to say '"et's spend more on this to help out" but not realise that this will be piling on to the debt. Cleggers will thus not be helping families they will have to pay for this scheme when some are really struggling to pay bills. It would also be the case that a free bus scheme to the under 16s will cost more than if families paid for a bus pass because it would have to be subsidised by the government. A huge loss of money would occur from those who do not take advantage of scheme when offered it. Thus extra money will go to the bus companies despite their being spare capacity. In London where this takes place bus subsidy is the highest in the country at £690 million in 2010 or 56p per passenger. The costs for such a bus subsidy nationwide are going to be in the billions of pounds. I thought as a Coalition there was an agreement to cut benefits and subsidies, obviously not?

We still have a Big Debt and Deficit, we should not be looking to increase benefits.

Nick has said that this should be done as a counter act to the Conservatives Marriage Tax Break but this would be a better investment of money because there will be a greater tax return. I'm no big enthusiast of having tax breaks for married couples except for the fact it's a tax cut. Nick will also find that tax cuts pay for themselves. If you look at the recent cut to the 50p tax rate, which Nick Clegg did not like, the government took in more money to spend on public services. The less people pay the more tax money comes in because the economy grows. This would not be the same with benefits because, although there could be an extra passengers on the buses, the subsidies will cost more and thus there would be a net loss. As an added bonus tax cuts allow independence of spending; not everyone will want to buy a under 16 bus pass. People want different things.

 The reduction of the top rate of tax to 45p brought in more money that it ever did at 40p. More money to spend on helping people or pay of the debt the previous government shafted onto them.

It seems the Lib Dems are just launching this policy to come back at the Conservatives over the planned marriage tax cut and because they like buses so much it is only natural they would go into this area. But Nick should learn that extra benefits mean extra debt and that tax cuts give independence and more money for the government.

Weekly Poll Lowdown

So we had the European Elections early on #ThingsElliottSays and the results are below. The Conservatives did very well in increasing their share from 2009 and so did the Green Party who have romped into 2nd place. A bad day for UKIP who went down and the Lib Dems who lost a lot. The independents will be disappointed with no votes.

How will you vote in the European Elections in 2014?

Conservative	31%
Labour	21%
UKIP	10%
Lib Dem	4%
Green	23%
Independent	0%
Unsure	10%

Total votes: 48

So how would this translate into seats, the European Elections are done by regional PR so this is easy to calculate although will not reflect a true picture because of regional variation. This would account for some odd loses from the Conservatives when gaining % in the vote.

Party	Seats	Gains/Losses from 2009
Conservative	23	-3
Labour	16	+3
UKIP	7	-6
Lib Dem	3	-8
Green	16	+14
Independent	0	-1

I'm quite surprised by the lack of UKIP support because I personally think they are in with a good chance of winning the EU elections next year. The Greens did remarkably well too and I think that this results from the fact students are not so massively for Labour, there is nowhere else to go if you're left. Alternatively it could just be lots of Tories having a joke on my poll.

Nigel Farage may be confused by lack of support in the #ThingsElliottSays poll but is in with a fair shot of coming first in 2014, He will at least be second again. 

This poll was launched because it is voting time in the Tory Party for the ranking on the list of candidates of the elections to the European Parliament. If you live in the Eastern Region you have to vote for Cllr Tom Hunt on your ballot paper. Tom is a great campaigner throughout the East and one who is genuinely Eurosceptic. He has also bravely come out and said that if there were to be a EU referendum today he would vote to leave because it is currently not in our favour.

But what is my general advice on voting for Conservatives across the country. Well always pick a good campaigner. With such a large region to cover an MEP needs to pick more campaigns than small local to help as many people as possible in a huge region. A good campaigner is someone who has often travelled to all areas and not just stayed near to where they live.

Another trait which I would look for is someone who is genuinely Eurosceptic. It is very hard to imagine someone in the Conservative Party who is not in the least bit wanting reform of Brussels, the only one that comes to mind is Ken Clarke out of the 100s of members I have met. There is however a small band of these ever closer union Conservatives and they seem to be attracted more than most to become a MEP. It is very hard to judge who these people are because everyone will put in 're-patriation' of powers into a piece of literature just to be selected. A safe bet then to make sure you get someone who is secretly a would be Lib Dem member is to select first those who are plainly Eurosceptic.

Sadly a few Conservatives like Ken Clarke are just ignoring the facts on Europe.

There are two MEPs that you should definitely be voting for if you're in their region. Dan Hannan, for being one of those voices who knows a lot about what is going on in Europe and how it will be changing in the next few years. He presents the best case of why we must at least take a strong Eurosceptic stance in the Tory Party. Also vote for Emma McClarkin who also takes an equally national interest stance. I have met Emma a few times and she genuinely works hard for the people of the East Midlands as well as giving Europe flack over making our country worse than it should be. I will be voting for Emma next year in the East Midlands in Nottingham and she will be getting my full support for re-election.

Emma McClarkin on the Brussels trip, make sure you vote for her.

Vote in the new poll on the sidebar.

Stunt Man

Today Danny Alexander has been on the air decrying the EU Referendum Bill, introduced as a Private Member's Bill by James Wharton, as 'a parliamentary stunt'. Unsurprisingly then he and all the other Lib Dem MPs will not be in Parliament next week for the vote for it, just like Ed Miliband has told MPs. Their non attendance on such a crucial national matter is a political stunt to not recognise the motion itself is so large that I'm surprised they haven't paid for advertising space in all the major newspapers.

David Cameron is accused of being a stuntman. He may have had a small job in PR before but I doubt people believe a debate on Europe is a stunt.

Both Labour and Lib Dems are effectively saying that the EU debate itself is not legitimate, of no interest to them and therefore nobody should have a say on it. By taking the risk of not turning up they themselves have taken the idea of democracy and in front of everyone said how awful it is as they don't want the British people to have vote on the issue.

Labour and Liberal Democrats don't show a lot of care for democracy.

Why is that though, because anyone who speaks to people realises this is a big issue of the time? There are only two conclusions that can be drawn really. First is they think the people of this country are stupid. We, the great masses of the people, cannot decide on how our country should be governed. This is a very risky strategy for Labour if they want to win a majority from a public that is mostly eurosceptic. For the Lib Dems too there are problems because the rejection of their ideas of 'liberalism' and 'social democracy' will dwindle into obscurity along with the party.

Danny Alexander is seemingly shocked that the people have the right to decide what happens in the country.

Secondly they don't believe the arguments for staying in the EU are ones that people benefit from, they're only in it for themselves. Self interest from personal benefit and their ideas of a collective Europe and a bigger state so that they are in charge is more important than democracy and actually better lives for people. No wonder Lib and Lab MEPs did not back the budget cut to the EU until very recently. It would be easier to see why they don't back any democratic changes to the country that actually gives people more power. The idea of power over people seems to be a big feature of Left wing politics and this is yet again paraded out.

The biggest move to get noticed by the other two parties on the position of Europe is seemingly the lack of democracy and debate on the issue. They want to send out a bizarre message of power away from people and have put it in lights and get lots of dancing girls to parade around it. To me this seems to be a bigger stunt, but one that is peculiar in telling voters they have no right in deciding what goes on in the country.

The Biggest stunt is surely demanding a referendum on Europe and then not doing so when in power.

Let's Get Fracking!!

Yesterday came probably the best news the country has seen this year, if not this decade or even millennium. The government have announced that they will begin to start fracking. Huzzah, finally!

The Lib Dem opposition to drilling for shale gas has lasted a long time. There has been 3 surveys ordered by the government of the Bowland Shale Basin, the geological name for the North now, because the Liberal Democrats think this goes completely against their green message. They are quite happy for a large proportion of the country to live in fuel poverty whilst they pretend they are doing something to save the environment.

Reason number 12 to vote Lib Dem they want us all to live in fuel poverty.

But importantly every time those surveys have been conducted the gas companies have found hundreds of years more of supply. In fact the Bowland Shale Basin has 1,330 trillion cubic feet of gas which is the largest deposit so far fully measured. Sad times to be a Lib Dem, great times to be a human being (except Seb, my house mate, who I have on good authority is a person).

Map of the Bowland Shale Basin, there are other areas not yet fully surveyed in the UK.

So what does this mean? Well for the North it is a god send as they have had very few successful enterprises since the end of the industrial revolution. The post war industry of the UK was falling apart and not fit for any purpose. Shale gas will surely mean an economic recovery with thousands of jobs from Yorkshire to Cheshire. On that base too follows all the service industries and manufactures who benefit from an economic boom area.

There are also the wider implications that will help everyone. Bigger industry will make sure that our private sector is for the first time in many years larger than the state creating economic growth and increasing living standards. The big tax revenues from shale gas drilling will certainly ease the austerity drive we are having to go through and start paying off some of that debt, although this  doesn't mean we should slack now in cuts.

The Ancient people of Britain used shale to make bracelets because it is very workable. Little did they know that we can get economic success by finding gas between the rocks.

Of course this brilliant news won't stop the critics. You may have seen mad Americans in Pennsylvania lighting up their plumbing in the news and blaming it on shale gas. The thing is they could have done that 20 years ago as, according to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, as gas in water pipes have been 'a long standing public health issue in Pennsylvania' due to localised geology. Oh yes and such gases do not have any adverse health risks in quantities present.

Another person is trying to set fire their house in the Americas. 

Earthquakes too should not be a major problem the highest magnitude earthquake recorded because of shale gas was 2.3 on the Richter Scale. Yet thousands of these occur in the UK every year and are usually not even noticed. A light earthquake, one that is noticeable and could cause problems, occurs at 4.0 which is thousands of times greater than 2.3 because of the funny maths of Mr Richter and Mr Scale. We will not see some tsunami engulf Blackpool soon, nor should the tower and the pier come crashing to the ground.

As for eyesores. Wind turbines are probably worse and devalue a person's house a lot more. There is no open quarry just the odd shed and a tall pylon like structure, which are all over the countryside.

A shale gas drill and all the trappings that follow it. Notably this takes up a lot less space than a wind turbine. 

Let's get fracking!!

Abstention Disaster

Ed Miliband has requested that Labour MPs abstain on the second reading of James Wharton's private member's bill to have a referendum on the EU by 2017. This shows not only that Ed is very weak but it also shows that the issue of Europe for the Labour Party is now an electoral disaster.

Weak, Weak, Weak!

Indecision on an issue is a big sign of being weak or at least perplexed by the very problem, either way not good. Ed doesn't need any more problems at this moment. Last week was a Labour disaster where policies were announced by Ed Balls and then Red Ed disagreed with them, total chaos in what the Labour Party stands for. It used to be that Labour was a spend, spend, spend party but now with support for the removal of spare room subsidy and the like the message is confused. Spend, spend, spend is a stupid idea, but there are people who would vote for it. No one can vote for a party which has no clue. So Ed has been shown to be very weak and unable to govern even before ordering MPs to abstain on the EU.

 Nigel is after the working class Labour voters and Ed is making it so much easier for him by abstaining on the EU Referendum Bill

Red Ed has a problem though. By not voting one way or another he's going to lose voters. The traditional Labour working class voters are less likely to vote for Ed. Being anti-EU is a very key idea for those who have very left-wing views, it was Labour policy before the 1980s. But also most Labour voters, extreme left or not, are actually fed up with Europe. The whole UK population wants to see at least some reform and Ed has essentially told them he is not backing any of it. I think we may see more Labour voters going to UKIP, as they have been doing a fair amount up till now, which will really cause some problems for Red Ed.

Even in 2011 lots of Labour voters in 2010 have gone to UKIP.

But also think of those who actually want closer integration to Europe. There are a significant amount of ex-Liberal Democrat voters in this country who would love us to join the Euro. They could hold the balance in 2015. But Ed is failing to get these votes too by abstaining. He won't take a stand against the eurosceptic public and back the European project. He is allowing the Conservatives to have a majority in the second reading. This Bill may become an Act of Parliament and make Britain take a path even further from the wishes of Brussels. An ex-Lib Dem will not be pleased.

In 2015 less crosses will go to the Lib Dems and more to Labour, but Ed making this less likely?

So Ed has been shown to be weak and has upset potential voters by blocking EU reform and those who like Europe and voted Lib Dem last time. I don't know why Ed thinks abstaining is a good idea. The Tories aren't going to have a massive bust up, over 95% of them will back the Bill.