Weekly Poll Lowdown

In this weekly poll I asked you to become YouGov (or more realistically Betfred or Ladbrokes). You seem to think that by the end of this year the Conservatives will be ahead in the polls. A fair proportion also believe that things will stay as they are with Labour being in the lead. Some mad people think the UKIP will take the lead in the polls and the most insane of you believe the Lib Dems will have the highest proportion of votes. I think 4% of you need to see some sort of therapist.

Which Party will have the largest percentage of the votes by the end of this year?

Conservative	43%
Labour	34%
Lib Dem	4%
UKIP	20%
No Idea	0%

Total votes: 56

Before I essentially start stabbing into the dark to try and predict what is going on I must say that any predictions are based on current trends. Trends can change, events can happen. This is why interpreting the results of a poll are so hard, a poll is almost out of date the moment it is published in this weird political whirlpool that exists in Westminster.

Personally though I could see the Conservatives having some sort of lead in polling by December 2014. Since the Autumn Statement, which was in December or winter for some reason, there has been a growing belief that the Conservatives have got it right on the economy and that the United Kingdom is surging upwards at a decent pace. It's pretty hard to argue with 1% growth figures and ones which are predicted to be over 2% this year.

Coupled with this is employment is up by 1.6 million since 2010 and is likely to further increase. Unemployment is also tumbling. Last month saw the second biggest fall on record so that now 7.1% of the workforce are unemployed (closing in on the Bank of England 7% unemployment level for considering raising interest rates). In fact in the last few months the decline in unemployment has been great enough for it to be likely to reach just above or at the pre-recession level by the General Election.

Labour is also all over the place like a very confused octopus. Labour have picked too many and terrible choices of things to talk about over the last few months. For example no one trusts Labour on welfare and yet for half of January they have chosen to lecture the British people about how to reform the failed system they created. It's no wonder the public see the Conservatives as best to deal with welfare. For the last month as well they have been talking about immigration, an issue with very strong opinions. Yet Labour did the most damage by applying no restrictions on immigration and not implementing migration controls with the rest of Europe. Their choices have been poor but selecting two major issues in one month is almost as bad, if I were the average voter I'd be perplexed by what is going on.

The one area where Labour has been concentrating on, and will continue to do so because they has positioned themselves to the point where they can no longer stop, is the cost of living.  There are many problems with putting all your eggs in this basket. Firstly it is marketed as a cost of living crisis. As was pointed out by Andrew Neil, the idea this is a crisis is completely hyperbolic as retail sales are going up caused by middle and low earners spending more. Secondly everyone always complains about the cost of living even in the best economic climates. This is rightly so as people want to keep as much of their own money but this means it has never been a deciding factor in a General Election. The best way to talk about the cost of living is to target a few substantial issues and then talk about them lots, like the Conservatives have done with fuel duty. You don't get anywhere by complaining about everything and therefore nothing. Lastly, although I would not be as brave as the Government or Gudio Fawkes to proclaim the cost of living problem is over, things can only get better from here on in as we have seen with high predicted growth rates and pretty low inflation. There is clearly a shift in opinions on the squeeze.

With these general trends considered I could imagine a 2 or 3 % lead in the polls for the Conservatives  by December 2014. I believe the tide of Labour leading in the polls will turn sometime over the summer. It's not going to get any better for Labour considering the economics and their past record of picking poor places to make a political stand.

Vote in the new poll. 

Red Ed's New Years Message

Red Ed today has come out with his New Year's Message and has focussed on the cost of living. "We're in the biggest cost of living crisis for a generation" says Ed Miliband. Although I think there is some historical inaccuracies if you count the 1970s and early 1980s mass inflation; people are felling the pinch at this moment. It's a good job then that the Conservatives in government has pushed for three key things to make sure people are better off.

On another note Labour hasn't yet said anything on the economy, which has started to do pretty well of late (you may have noticed). Seems odd for a New Years Message not to include the economy's growth when it is important to improve people's lives. I thus went to find out if Labour had an economic plan to solve living costs and found this.

This is Ed Milibands Real Christmas Message.

Economic Resurgence and Roadblocks

I don't think anyone in the Conservative Party is in any doubt that if we're going to win in 2015 the main reason for this will be the economy. We've got to make sure the economy is healthy or well on the way to being so by 2015 or we have no chance of victory. Since my last economic post the picture has got a lot rosier but what are the big roadblocks to a stronger economy.

UK economic pigs on the increase.

The good news is that we are predicted to grow more than anyone thought this year. The OCED, who said that we would grow at most by 0.8% this year, has massively increased their prediction to the UK growing by 1.5%. Indeed it gets better when you look at the annualised rate of growth which is 6% meaning we're growing faster than France, Germany and America (pretty good going). Of course we shouldn't be too optimistic because these are predictions we must wait for the results until we starting patting each other on the back and celebrating an end to a depression. 

The UK in real terms is out preforming Germany and probably will continue to in the future.

This growth is also pretty sustainable, built on the increases from all sectors of the economy. Factory production is seeing a boom that could only be compared to one that took place 20 years ago. Car production is soaring as well (which Top Gear has tooted a lot). The Service Sector is really getting some pace now on the back of increased high street sales (despite threats from the interweb and out of town shopping). Construction figures are the best they have ever been for 6 years. And most importantly Lego has seen a 17% rise in sales. All sectors of the economy are growing, which, apart from last month, has only happened in 1991.

Lego is on the increase.

The best news however is twofold. Unemployment is down and will continue to fall. Expect an increase in the 1.3 million jobs that that have been created in this country since 2010, a good record for the Conservatives in government. The growth in the economy also means tax revenues are up for the government which is good for deficit reduction because the shortfall of tax has led to the deficit falling less than expected by the Chancellor in 2010. Perhaps we will pay off more of the deficit than expected?

All areas of the economy are growing creating more jobs in ares like the car industry.

But this actually leads onto the start of the bad news because the days when cheap government lending is over. The small window we had to pay back or debt with the least cost has virtually closed because yesterday the cost for the UK government to borrow reached over 3%. This is an international rather than a purely UK problem and is an inevitable shift where bankers and other countries realise that governments are not very good at paying back loans. So now each Pound in debt is a bigger weight on the future of the UK. 

Interest Rates are likely to be at an all time low for a very long time.

Also we may see a problem caused by the Bank of England keeping the rates of interest at 0.5% for 3 years (despite some caveats). This move is good for stability as businesses have a pretty clear picture of what to expect of the future, but it's not as brilliant a move for lending as people may think. Although we have started to create more wealth with economic growth, we have a capital problem still in the UK. Cutting taxes would aid this partially but we really need to be encouraging people to save so their money can be leant out, this can be done by raising interest rates. Although a low interest rate will make people want to borrow more it is impossible to do so when there is very little money. If I was Governor I'd start thinking about raising interest rates sometime in mid to late 2014. 

Inflation is something to watch out in case there is a big increase.

Inflation may become a big problem too because the government is going to start trying to get rid of as much as this debt as possible by decreasing the value of money. It has already done this quite a lot with almost 25% of the deficit that paid off by printing more money. With more quantitative easing possibly on the way, the government increasing energy bills and interest rates remaining at a standstill inflation is likely to increase. Bad for business and for people's buying power. Inflation is not something that any government wants to increase and especially before an election which Labour will fight on the cost of living.

Cue Union Flag piggy bank surrounded by money.

So there we are, lots of good news about growth, profit, jobs and deficit reduction but things to watch out for in the next coming years and possibly some mistakes made by the Bank of England and the Government.

Also, what do you think to the new look of the Blog? If you like it then good, if you don't well you'll just have to put up with the blue, red and white combined with a new logo.