Last night I wrote an email to Steve Barclay, the great local MP of North East Cambridgeshire. I am pretty unhappy with current government policy which is on an obvious path to war with Syria so I wrote to urge him to call for the Prime Minister to recall Parliament for a free debate and to not back any more UK intervention in Syria. The email is below.
Dear Stephen Barclay,
I write to you with great concern over current government
policy about Syria. It seems inevitable that soon the Government will be moving
to war against the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. I implore you to back a
Commons Vote on whether we should go to war and also that you vote against
military intervention in the Syrian Civil War.
What we saw recently from the Assad government with the mass
use of chemical weapons, killing over a thousand of his own people, was an
awful atrocity. However, the method surely makes no difference to need for
intervention now, especially considering that over one hundred thousand people
have already tragically perished in the conflict. What the international
community have done by previously stating that the mass use of chemical
weaponry was a red line was to arbitrarily set a position where they had to
make a decision over whether to intervene in Syria. This red line was not made
on the basis of preserving human life because we knew almost two years ago
Syria would be torn apart by a bloody civil war. The red line was an attempt
from Western governments to make them look tougher on Assad but they did not
believe would be crossed. We have however now, almost by accident, sleep walked
into having to make an unnecessary decision over Syria.
Firstly I ask for you to demand from the Prime Minster, if
he is to back military intervention in Syria, that Parliament be recalled to
debate and vote, with no whip in place from the Conservative Party, on whether
Britain should militarily intervene at any level in Syria. Anything less than
this would be a national travesty despite the Prime Ministerial prerogative
power to go to war. War is a serious thing to consider and the public must have
their voices heard through their elected representatives. If the Prime Minister
does not recall Parliament he will have committed a grave error which will make
members of the Conservative Party and members of the general public begin to
question his abilities and right to govern, I would be amongst these.
When such a recall takes place I would ask you, for the
reasons I shall list below, to vote against any greater intervention in Syria.
I am of the opinion that we should not at all arm the Syrian Opposition, along
with 58% of the public, or use any British military force against Assad, along
with 74% of the public (only 9% of the general public support British military
intervention). The British people rightly see that Syrian intervention is a bad
thing for the Syrians and for the world; I hope to convince you to follow their
sound judgement.
It is clear we cannot mount a credible attack on Syria. The
forces of Assad are some of the best in the Arab World. Attempts to create a no
fly zone in Syria will come at great resistance from the very strong Syrian Air
force, one of the strongest in the Arab World. It is questionable whether the
Royal Air Force with a coalition of allies, like in Libya, could defeat Assad's
jet fighters, even if unlike Libya there was American support. I certainly
expect there to be casualties on our part if we did try to impose a no fly
zone, which will only add to the dead in this war. I also think that there is a
high possibility of ground troops being sent to Syria. For whatever reason such
intervention will be costly and is unlikely to be successful. Assad's army is
very strong is not one to underestimated, especially with chemical weapons. It
is likely we'd have to fight a three way war too because our help would be, at
least eventually, opposed by Islamists and terrorists already fighting to take
over the country. This battle strategy does not seem at all credible; military
chiefs do not believe military intervention is sensible and I think we will be
facing disaster.
More importantly however there is no clear objective which
we can credibly achieve in Syria. If our objective is to protect Syrian
civilians we are likely to fail. This war even if we intervene is likely to
take a long time and cost many more lives. At the end of it, regardless of
which side wins, there will be further deaths from either a vengeful Assad,
oppressing anyone who he thought had any connection to the Syrian Opposition,
or in a split liberal and Islamist country who would fight over who is in control of the government, at best this
will be mass civil disturbance at worst another civil war (the latter is
historically more common).
Any intervention is likely escalate tensions across the
region as well because the Syrian Civil War is also a proxy war between Saudi
Arabia and Iran. Both these states have been waging a Cold War for many years
now and any intervention by the United Kingdom would make us targets for
terrorist attacks from the Iranian government, putting our own citizens lives
at risk. Feasibly too, as they nearly did last year before President Obama's
re-election, tensions could become so much that war breaks out in the Middle
East. I do not think that we should be putting the lives of our Israeli, Iraqi
and Turkish allies at risk in a war which would see much life lost. Do not
forget also that we would have a duty to defend our allies so British troops
would be more at risk.
If our intention is to bring about democracy in Syria our
intervention in the country certainly will not help. If we back the Opposition
we're chancing that they will create a democratically elected government. The
Opposition is currently unorganised and is made up of a large number of
Islamists who wish to bring about a Islamic State with no or fake democracy.
Such a situation would be backed by nobody credible in Britain. Nobody, not
even the security services, can accurately say who is in control of the Syrian
Opposition forces. This lack of cohesion is making sure, that unlike with the
National transitional Council of Libya, that the Syrian Opposition will lose
the war.
The only feasible way Syria can become a democracy is
through a reorganisation of the Syrian Opposition to clearly define whether a
future Assad government would be a liberal democracy or Islamic dictatorship.
The Syrian people can thus make a better decision on whether to back the
opposition and withdraw support for Assad, it is worth noting that many Syrians
are concerned of an Islamist takeover and back Assad despite his atrocities. If
the Syrian Opposition chooses liberal democracy the Syrian people will more so
choose to support the Opposition and thus lead to a more likely downfall of
Assad. The only way for a stable democracy to be formed in Syria is for the
Syria to choose to accept it and for them to fight for it. Sadly this means
deaths that are unavoidable.
Intervention in Syria can only mean an alienation of the
Syrian people, who are much more diverse in strong opinions than in Iraq. In
that country 20% of the population supported the previous Saddam government. In
Syria the mix is so broad that the amount of support for interventionist forces
will be comparable to Soviet support in Afghanistan during the 1980s and 1990s.
Our attempt at democracy in Syria will end in failure, with many lives lost,
and chaos across the Arab world.
There is thus a strong moral cause against war in Syria. I
support current government policy of sanctions, aid and life saving measures
being given to the Syrian people. But a change in policy to military
intervention will not lessen the amount of civilian deaths in the country, it
is most likely to create more, and there is not even a slim chance of creating
a successful democracy. I appreciate that many MPs do not decide whether they
are to vote for a proposed motion until they have seen it written on the order
paper. However this matter is so grave and serious that I ask to know what your
opinion is and whether you would vote for British military intervention?
I look forward to your speedy reply.
Yours Faithfully,
Elliott Johnson
Steve wrote a short reply that he will speak to me about this in person next time I see him. I'm sure I will soon receive a full letter with his official reply.
I also wrote a similar email to Lillian Greenwood MP, for Nottingham South (she is sadly Labour), where I live as a student. I asked also what Labour will be doing if Parliament is recalled, which it has been on Thursday.
Please write to your MP about Syria, it is very important.
I'll keep you updated with replies.
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