Weekly Poll Lowdown

So the hustings are over and the votes have been counted (thanks to the 29 of you who voted). I can now exclusively reveal who you think will be the next Conservative Party leader and it is an overwhelming victory for Boris Johnson. William Hague came second, followed by Jesse Norman, Michael Gove, Liam Fox and lastly George Osborne who received nothing.

Boris Johnson	16 (55%)
Michael Gove	1 (3%)
George Osborne	0 (0%)
William Hague	6 (20%)
Jesse Norman	4 (13%)
Liam Fox	2 (6%)

55% of you are all wrong. I think the next leader will be Jesse Norman. Political predictions are less accurate than astrology in general but let me try and explain why. Boris is definitely going to stand as leader of the Conservative party but the intention of the party will be to have someone who is not too close to the Liberal Democrats and left political persuasion in the Conservatives. Boris may not be in the coalition but he is politically very similar to David Cameron. Do you remember Boris Johnson’s proposed amnesty for illegal immigrants or how he couldn't decide to have an EU referendum? If you read any of his books, which I have and positively recommend, you’ll see what Boris thinks to Adam Smith economics and how much he likes the welfare state. I do like Boris, I think he’s great, and his character wouldn't hold him back if leader of the Party but his politics is no different to his good chum Dave’s.

Jesse Norman on the other hand is not like David Cameron. He was in charge of the Conservatives who voted against the House of Lords reform and mastered control over the backbenchers with whips on the issue. Nor is he anything like David Cameron politically and they don’t really get on (see lobby argument after Lords reform was blocked). Jesse Norman is seen as very intelligent and has a good persona with other members of parliament. My advice then is to watch out for him at the next leadership election, although having said that more Jesse Norman like backbenchers may appear between now and then.

(If your a keen student of maths you will notice that the % do not add to 100 but are rounded to the nearest whole number)